The Next Sudanese Peace?

The real question at this moment is: what to do after secession? This is the real problem. In fact, everybody seems to know it, but nobody seems brave enough to face it.

19 November 2009

The Next Sudanese Peace?

Giorgio Musso*

These days’ mood in Khartoum is a mixture of disillusionment, suspicion and fear: not the best feelings for a country which finds itself at a crucial moment to determine its future.

Amidst a growing anxiety, the different actors involved on the political scene seem to be affected by a form of paralysis: they are not willing to act, instead, they prefer to wait-and-see and then react. It is a war of positions in which the aim is to burden on the other’s back what is perceived as in imminent failure.

Since July 2005, both the NCP and the SPLM/A have given the impression to run on parallel binaries, each one pursuing its own agenda while trying to manage its internal divisions. Nonetheless, they were conscious to be traveling on the same train and they knew that if it had derailed, it would have meant the end of the ride for both. This is the reason why, maybe beyond expectations, the NCP and the SPLM/A managed during the last years to overcome all the obstacles that threatened to put at risk the implementation of the CPA.

At present, it seems that each one is planning to step down at a different stop: for the NCP, the elections, for the SPLM/A, the referendum. They seem not to be conscious that the referendum won’t be the end of the ride, but just the beginning of a longer one.

The NCP’s calculation concerning the coming elections is not something that is to be dealt with in this posting. What I want to stress is that even among Northerners, everybody has come to accept the idea that the referendum will result in the secession of Southern Sudan. Put it simply, NCP’s legitimacy rests on a full implementation of the CPA, and the referendum is part of it, willing or not.

The real question at this moment is: what to do after secession? This is the real problem. In fact, everybody seems to know it, but nobody seems brave enough to face it. The NCP and the SPLM/A, along with foreign envoys, are still quarreling about Referendum Law, quorum, etc. but what Sudan needs at present is the two parties sitting around a table and beginning to discuss how secession is going to take place and how the relations between the two new entities will be settled. Despite years of war, Northern and Southern Sudan are still strongly tied together by virtue of economic and social relations.

I’ve heard many “Southerners” living in the North saying that they don’t want to go back to the South: they have a job here, they have a house, their children are born here and have studied Arabic at school. The question is: how to assure a smooth transition, to avoid deportation of Southerners from the North to the South and vice-versa (remember Pakistan 1947)?

What about oil? The SPLM/A has declared that it’s determined to build its own refinery and a pipeline running through Kenya to Mombasa. It is a project that will take – if carried out efficiently and without interruptions – at least five years: what are the Southerners going to do with oil during these years? A form of wealth sharing must be set up for the post-referendum period.

What about other economic ties: trade, land owned by Northerners in the South, etc.? How is the circulation of people and goods to be regulated? What is needed is to devise some sort of “soft border” safeguarding the interests of both Northerners and Southerners.

These are the real issues at stake. Time is running out, and such deals will take time to be negotiated.
Call it “CPA-plus”, “CPA-Upgrade”, “Post-transition Agreement”,… it must be clear that it is not a re-negotiation of the CPA which is needed, but a fully new agreement. Of course – for instance in matters like wealth sharing – CPA formulae may provide a useful point of departure, and in some cases an extension of some CPA provision could suffice.

There is nothing that can’t be avoided. Since the signature of the CPA, too many observers have written and spoken about “the next Sudanese civil war”. War is not something unavoidable, but unfortunately peace is not something reached once and for all. It’s a choice that must be renewed, and this is the case in Sudan. It’s not a question of optimism or idealism, it’s a matter of realism.

Giorgio Musso is a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Genova (Italy)
--
From
Neha Erasmus
Programme Coordinator
Justice Africa
Room 307, Afro Asian Business Centre, Atlabara C, Juba, Sudan
Mob: +249 (0) 915 855223   Mob: +256 (0) 477 259913
www.justiceafrica.org
 

Posted in: Opinions
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19/11/2009, 1:35 PM
 - Posted by Anonymous User
It could be argued that President Bashir and company knew, even before the CPA was signed, that Southern Sudan would go if given the chance to vote in a free and independently supervised referendum. So an elaborate plan was hatched even before the agreement was signed and put in practice soon after the signing of the agreement.

His return to Khartoum from the January 5th 2005 CPA's celebrations in Nairobi, Kenya, was through Juba and Malaka where he met with top commanders of his Jihad forces, seemingly a logical stopping point for a president who had just signed away a part of the country he had long committed so many soldiers to die for?

May be; but his next moves spoke volumes:

He immediately promoted over 300 members of Southern Sudanese militiamen who had been fighting alongside his forces against the SPLA, and known then by him as "friendly forces", to higher ranks, some to Major Generals! The incoming Government of Southern Sudan, headed by the late Dr John Garang, would either have to take them with those ranks, thus diverting much of their agreed 50% of oil income to their salaries, or Bashir would use of the oil money to arm them and sabotage the implementation of the CPA. After all, John Garang and his GoSS would never be permitted to know for sure how much oil was being pumped out of the South and how much money was actually being realized.

However, Garang’s very popular reception when he returned to Khartoum in July 2009 cast a huge shadow of fear over these plans: Garang in the Presidential Palace in Khartoum as First Vice President, would turn the whole thing inside-out; thus becoming the virtual President of the Sudan. For the few weeks he was in the palace, he convened daily meetings with key members of the government and palace officials. he was already the man to see, not the president. So there was no way secrets about sabotaging the CPA could be be successfully hidden from him. That he had to go was clear; how was the problem.

That Garang perished, in now officially gazetted accident, within the month of his becoming First Vice President the Sudan must have seemed providential, seen from the point of view of those who would have had reason to see him dead anyway.

When Bashir refused point blank South Sudan’s demands for either the ministry of finance or oil industry portfolio in the Government of National Unity, and Kiir, - Garang’s successor - reminded Bashir that he was suppose to “make unity attractive” to Southerners, Bashir reportedly retorted that the South would secede any, even if he bribed them with both ministries. True, true.

But Bashir and Co have not given up yet on the fact that the CPA process, ending up in a referendum that will see the South go, cannot be fully sabotaged in a way that would sink the SPLM/GoSS while leaving the NCP afloat. I have about a five-year old published opinion article somewhere, urging the SPLM and NCP to float or sink together. It should really be obvious to them, but isn't.
19/11/2009, 1:52 PM
 - Posted by Jacob Akol
It could be argued that President Bashir and company knew, even before the CPA was signed, that Southern Sudan would go if given the chance to vote in a free and independently supervised referendum. So an elaborate plan was hatched even before the agreement was signed and put in to practice soon after the signing of the agreement.

His return to Khartoum from the January 5th 2005 CPA's celebrations in Nairobi, Kenya, was through Juba and Malaka, where he met with top commanders of his Jihad forces, seemingly a logical stopping point for a president who had just signed away a part of the country he had long committed so many soldiers to die for?

May be; but his next moves speak volumes:

He immediately promoted over 300 members of Southern Sudanese militiamen who had been fighting alongside his forces against the SPLA, and known by him as "friendly forces", to higher ranks, some to Major Generals! The incoming Government of Southern Sudan, headed by the late Dr. John Garang, would either have to take them with those ranks, thus diverting much of their agreed 50% of oil income to their salaries, or Bashir would use of the oil money to arm them and sabotage the implementation of the CPA.

After all, John Garang and his GoSS would never be permitted to know for sure how much oil was being pumped out of the South and how much was money was actually being realized.

However, Garang’s very popular reception when he returned to Khartoum in July 2009 cast a huge shadow of fear over those plans: Garang in the Presidential Palace in Khartoum as First Vice President, would turn the whole thing inside-out; thus becoming the virtual President of the Sudan. For the few weeks he was in the palace, he was already the man to see. That he had to go was clear; how was the problem.

That he perished by now officially gazetted accident within the month of his becoming First Vice President must have been providential to those who had reason to see him dead anyway. NCP had solid reason.

When Bashir refused point blank South Sudan’s demands for either the ministry of finance or oil industry in the central ministries and Kiir - Garang’s successor - reminded Bashir that he was suppose to “make unity attractive” to Southerners, Bashir reportedly retorted that the South would secede any, even if he bribed them with both ministries.

Bashir and Co have not fully realised yet the fact that the CPA process, ending up in a referendum that will see the South go, cannot be safely sabotaged in a way that would sink the SPLM/GoSS while leaving the NCPA afloat. I have an about five-year old published opinion article somewhere, urging the SPLM and NCP to float or sing together. It should be obvious to them, really.
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