JUNBA, February 13 (Daily Nation) - Sudan’s oil production will peak next year before it starts to consistently fall, according to a new forecast.
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Oil and gas liquids production will increase by one third (30.3 percent), with volumes peaking at 700,000b/d in 2010, according to a Business Monitor International forecast.
But the oil and gas volumes will then steadily fall to 596,000b/d by the end of the 2018, according to Business Monitor.
And growth is forecast to fall from 12.7 percent in 2008 to 7.9 percent this year.
The forecast comes at a time when the Government of National Unity is preparing to bring new oil wells to production.
GoNU energy and Mining Minister Azhari Abdullah early January announced that a new oil field was set to start operations at Qamari, Upper Nile.
The minister told the press that those 75 oil wells will cost Sudan 30 million US dollars to bring to production, and will produce 50,000 barrels per day upon completion.
The production will initially start with 23 wells with capacity for 30,000 barrels per day.
President Omar al Bashir is scheduled to commission the new wells next month.
Business Monitor provides oil and gas market research for country markets. It also provides analysis on oil and gas companies worldwide – from Asia and Africa to the Americas, Europe and the Middle East.
Yet, as production falls, local oil consumption is forecast to increase by 71 percent by 2018, according to the forecast.
Local oil consumption will rise from 94,000b/d in 2007 to 126,000b/d in 2013. Then the demand will rise to 161,000b/d by 2018, eating up nearly one third of all oil produced that year.
However, the forecast does not factor the possibility of two countries emerging after the referendum in 2011. Under the peace agreement, Southern Sudan goes to the referendum to determine whether to stay a part of Sudan, or to form a separate country. More than 80 percent of the Sudanese oil, including that anticipated from the new wells, is produced in the south.
The Business Monitor forecast also assumes no major plans for significant gas production or consumption.
Sudan will account for 3.02 percent of African regional oil demand by 2013, and supply 5.16 percent of regional oil.
African regional oil use of 2.98mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to 3.57mn b/d in 2007, according to the forecast. African regional oil use should average 3.65mn b/d in 2008 and then rise to around 4.17mn b/d by 2013.
Regional oil production was 7.84mn b/d in 2001, and averaged 10.31mn b/d in 2007.