By Hakim Dario Moi
Gurtong 22 May 2011 - South Sudan could be at brink of another war being ignited at a critical time toward the end of the CPA implementation. I attended with many others here at Oxford University, St Anthony's College, a conference under the interrogative title :
The question couldn't have been so much ironic and posed at such a poignant time. The conference was attended and addressed by non other than the man who negotiated the CPA, General (Ret.) Lazaro Sumbeiwyo, and flanked by the two CPA signatory parties, the NCP represented by the soft spoken NCP stalwart Yahia Husain Babikir, and unassuming, but thoughtful, resourceful Minister of SPLA Affairs in the Government of South Sudan, Nhial Deng Nhial.
As one leading commentator remarked and quipped about CPA so far showing surprising traction to be the only agreement in Sudan that appears to be holding and not dishonoured, he was also very quick to qualify his optimism and hastened to point out that the remaining six weeks of the CPA have yet to pass peacefully, and that one and a half months was a very long time in politics of the Sudan for a peace agreement to hold. He hoped that, unlike the two many agreements dishonoured, this one should be the exception and appears to be holding ...so far.
His message and remarks couldn't be more prophetic, and six weeks is a long time to break the CPA or change the course of history and political events which brought Sudan close to peaceful cross roads in July 2011.
Will the peace hold as the Sudan Armed Forces take Abyei?
As speaker after speaker took the podium yesterday, both Nhial and Hussain drew on evidence and track record of the past more than six years, in which SPLM and NCP were faced with trying moments and grave dangers of the CPA unraveling, but managed to keep peace and hopes of millions of Sudanese not to return to war but chose to maintain peace, and resolution of disagreements through peaceful means and dialogue to avoid needless and destructive war.
The General, Ret Lazaro Sumbeiwyo, was shooting straight to focus minds of both Nhial and Hussain on the issues at hand, pleaded urgent need for a third party to moderate negotiations and bridge gaps between SPLM and NCP on the contentious issues that are threatening potential conflict over the un-delineated borders of the 1956, the disputes over Abyei, and lack of progress on and outstanding negotiations on post-referendum issues. How the two parties could complete negotiations on all outstanding post referendum issues in just less than 6 weeks to independence in July, is any body's guess and a matter no one knows the answer for.
The General, Lazaro, aimed and shot direct at target with pinpoint accuracy, that sovereignty of South Sudan was inherently defined by sovereignty over a clearly defined land mass and territory, as internationally recognized and stood on January 1956. That the attempt to lay claim over Abyei territory without completion of due process as made in the Draft Transitional Constitution of South Sudan 2011, risked igniting conflict and dispute which could derail negotiations on post referendum issues, and should be handled with a greater sense of patience on both parties, NCP and SPLM and perhaps needed time to allow mediation through 3rd parties to reach agreement on matters of dispute.
Nhial Deng Nhial was quick in his reaction to General Lazaro, that SPLM chose a path for peaceful resolution and negotiations over Abyei, and that international mechanisms of arbitration were available to it to resolve disputes, such as in the case of Abyei. Hussain, the NCP stalwart, who doubled as Nhial's peer throughout the CPA negotiations in Naivasha, assured the conference, the NCP was committed to CPA implementation, and defied anyone to question the outcome of the Referendum, which he said NCP recognized without hesitation, and that NCP remains committed to the peaceful implementation of the CPA, on account of both track record so far and political will to carry the agreement through to its conclusion without violating cease fire agreements since the cessation of hostilities between SPLM and Government of Sudan.
Will the take over of Abyei by SAF, as reported, now defy all the commitment of NCP and SPLM yesterday to peaceful conclusion to the CPA unravel it instead?
This is the question of the this hour, and a question that will not go away in the longest ever six weeks to July 9, and the hopes of millions of Sudanese and South Sudanese hinge on it.
What could have triggered the SAF actions to threaten peace and armed dispute over Abyei just six weeks to July? Who is to blame, the NCP or SPLM for escalation of potential confrontation over Abyei, and does it have to be a military confrontation at this hour?
The Government of Southern Sudan, and that of Sudan should exercise leadership, strategy, restraint and statesmanship to keep the peace and CPA intact to conclusion post 9 July 2011.
The international community should assist the two partners to maintain and prioritize peace over needless military confrontation in the interest of peace, regional and international stability and security. The people of Sudan should not be dragged into another war, and must exercise restraint over recourse to military and armed confrontation as means to an end at this time.
The process for resolving the final status of Abyei through a referendum is a legitimate right of the people of Abyei, and the nations of the world and the UN recognised that right enshrined in the CPA. That right must be protected and given effect for the people of Abyei to exercise in a free and fair referendum.
The Government of Southern Sudan and its people know, and the world too knows, the inalienable right of the people of Abyei to a self-determination referendum on their final status in the Sudan, and international pressure should be mobilised by the independent Republic of South Sudan to enable the people of Abyei exercise their legitimate right to choose their final status to be in Sudan or in the Republic of South Sudan.